The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has not provided an exact timeline for when quantum computers will break existing encryption methods, but they acknowledge the urgency of preparing for this eventuality. Many experts estimate that a quantum computer capable of breaking current cryptographic systems could emerge within the next 10-20 years. This projection depends on advancements in quantum hardware and algorithms. NIST emphasizes that even though such quantum computers do not yet exist, organizations should transition to quantum-resistant cryptography now, as the process of updating systems can take years or even decades.
NIST has already selected four post-quantum cryptographic algorithms and is in the process of standardizing them, with the first set of standards expected to be finalized in 2024. This proactive approach aims to safeguard sensitive data and mitigate the risks posed by “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks, where encrypted data is stolen today and stored for decryption by future quantum computers.
Governments, including the U.S., are urging organizations to prepare by inventorying their cryptographic assets, creating migration roadmaps, and collaborating with technology vendors to ensure a smooth transition to quantum-safe encryption.
Blockchain Beyond Quantum